As of 2021, the estimated world population is 7.9 billion: that’s 7.9 billion hungry mouths our mother earth has to feed.
Experts at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predict that this number will balloon to about 9.1 billion by 2050, a 34% increase in less than 30 years. Moreover, the nonstop gallop of urbanization will mean the percentage of city dwellers will rise from the current 49% to 70%. Global food production must likewise increase by 70% in order to accommodate this population increase and ensure food security for all, according to a report by the FAO.
“But increasing production is not sufficient to achieve food security,” the FAO warns. “It must be complemented by policies to enhance access by fighting poverty, especially in rural areas, as well as effective safety net programmes.”
The FAO notes that while the Global South does not perpetrate most of the environmental damage, it also shoulders a disproportionate amount of the repercussions, as its land and infrastructures are more vulnerable to the consequences of climate change and extreme weather events.
It is worth noting, however, that permaculture and farming practices in line with nature are climate-resilient and have the means to deal with the changing temperatures. Nonetheless, the heightening population and resultant demand for food will require an inevitable industry revitalization.
What will boosting food output mean for our planet? Can our environment produce not only sustenance, but also the raw materials, energy, and other resources human beings and industries need to survive? And what of the multi-trillion dollar global agricultural sector? How are some industry members adapting to the tumult — and others floundering?
And of course, how has the economic impact of the global pandemic affected the food supply chain?
Agriculture in Canada and the world
The numbers speak for themselves: the agricultural sector is a force to be reckoned with. One of the world’s top producers of cereal and vegetable crops, the US, exports a staggering $118.3 billion per year, according to Investopedia. While China and India are leaders in crop production, a lot of the yield is distributed domestically, where alleviating food scarcity is a top priority.
🇨🇦 Farming in Canada
Here in Canada, about 160 million acres of land is used for farming, with about 193,492 farms in total, as reported by Statistics Canada. The 2021 Net Cash Income for Canadian farmers is predicted to rise from 6.8% to $17.6 billion.
Growth in agriculture is a fulcrum to economic growth worldwide, accounting for 4% of global GDP and more than 25% for countries in the Global South, per the World Bank. Since everyone needs to eat, food is also a great equalizer. Growth in the farming industry is two to four times more effective in raising incomes among the poorest populations.
🌎 Farming around the world
The latest data from FAO show that between 2018 and 2019, top ten countries with the highest average agricultural land area are China, USA, Australia, Brazil, Russia, Kazakhstan, India, Saudi Arabia, Mongolia, and Argentina. At the top of the list, China boasts about 528,000 hectares of farming land. Looking at continents, Asia has the highest percentage of agricultural land, at 35.1%.
In terms of state investments, the FAO reports that the Brazilian government puts in the greatest amount of funding, at just under US$5.1 million in 2018 and 2019, which puts it at the top of the list. Russia is not far behind, with US$4.6 million, and Switzerland at US$3.8 million. The FAO report specifies that agriculture encompasses the production, administrative management, and government programs pertaining to crops and livestock.
How did COVID-19 affect agribusiness on a global scale?
As Devex observes, a host of logistical barriers produced by the pandemic, including physical distancing requirements, curfews, and travel restrictions, have precluded farmers from harvesting crops as well as buyers from accessing international markets.
This butterfly effect resulted in labour disruptions and a 30% rise in food prices since the beginning of 2020 — such inflation compounded by reduced earnings and access to food meant 720 to 811 million people in the world went hungry in 2020, according to a UN report.
Developing nations again receive the brunt of the situation, with 67% of farmers in Western Kenya reporting a substantial household income reduction as a direct result of the pandemic, a survey conducted by NGO, Farm Africa found.
“It’s a burden the farmers are ill equipped to bear,” the report reads. “Half of the interviewees reported that they did not have an emergency fund, while 52% of farmers confirmed that they had no capital reserved to support their farming activities.”
Farm Africa also warns that the lack of savings could impact production in the fallout of the pandemic, and force farm owners to resort to subsistence farming in order to maintain their reserves.
In an early 2021 report, Biome Makers surveyed over 100 farmers and agronomists across the US, Central America, and Europe about the challenges the community encountered during COVID-19; what they expect in the forthcoming growing season; and covered key sector trends within participating nations.
In their analysis of COVID-19’s effect on farming, Biome Maker’s report looked only at the US and Europe, concluding that the severity of farmers severely impacted by the pandemic was higher in the latter (33%) than the former (11%). However, 88% of European respondents project an increase in profits in 2021 and believe 2021 will bring better harvest and economic dynamics in agribusiness.
Biome Makers assert that so-called “environmentally sustainable” interventions in food production and the preservation of the planet will be paramount for the industry and its consumers — and the momentum behind this recuperative project kickstarted even before 2020.
“Long before the outbreak, agriculture started to face some of the immediate challenges to improve the amount and quality of the crops while minimizing the environmental impact,” co-founders Alberto Acedo and Adrian Ferrero write.
“Changes in agriculture are motivated by adapting to consumer needs, more restrictive regulations on inputs and the need to increase the positive impact on the environment to mitigate climate change.”
What are the major industry trends in agriculture?
Biome Makers also distilled five key trends in the sector for 2021: “sustainability,” “agricultural output efficiency,” “carbon sequestration,” “agtech for profitability,” and “the next generation of farming.”
🌎 Rejuvenation practices and soil health
“Sustainability is gaining traction among farmers, who are recognizing the long-term benefits of sustainable farming and preserving the value of their lands,” the report states, adding that 75% of surveyed farmers added that such practices were a management priority and 49% also indicated they are willing to adopt cover cropping to put a greater emphasis on soil health and preserving microbes in dirt.
❓ What is cover cropping? Cover cropping is the practice of growing plants to cover soil, not for harvest. This method helps enhance soil fertility, quality, and biodiversity while preventing soil erosion.
Also within the purview of environmentally conscious farming practices, farmers are looking to implement carbon farming, a variety of growing methods that sequesters atmospheric carbon into soil and crops. Biome Maker reports that carbon farming is attracting tech giants who wish to reduce greenhouse gases and will continue to gain traction in the coming year.
Carbon sequestration is part of a larger movement of regenerative agriculture, which “focuses on rebuilding organic matter and living biodiversity in soil which produces increasingly nutrient-dense food year after year—while rapidly sequestering excess atmospheric carbon underground to reverse climate change,” as defined by the Rodale Institute.
In spite of the social and economic upheaval of the last two years, the pandemic has also ushered in an unprecedented wave of innovation and ingenuity in farming interventions, especially in the world of agritech.
🖥 Technological innovation
According to Biome Makers, technology is, in many ways, a panacea for many agricultural obstacles: it has the potential to help empower farmers to maximize yields, crop quality, and productivity, while simultaneously maintaining soil health and biodiversity.
Looking towards the future, 35% of farmers are also concerned about mobilizing the next generation of farmers and see youth attrition as a major challenge to agribusiness. Refining farming strategies in light of current and future environmental issues will be crucial for the emergent cohort of farmers.
“We have an opportunity to see the adoption of new techniques that help reduce the impacts of climate change, and enable the regeneration of farmlands using data-based technologies,” the report states.
An example of a simple yet ingenious use of communication technology comes from Kenya and Ethiopia. NGO Mercy Corps partnered with Turn.io — a WhatsApp business service provider — to create a hotline to alert farmers of locust sightings and receive public health messaging in real-time. This solution proved indispensable during the height of the pandemic, Devex reported.
Some also argue that digital technology in agriculture will help fortify social protection programs — namely with cashless and paperless currency — by eliminating the middleman. Swarnim Wagle, Chairman of the Institute for Integrated Development Studies in Nepal, is one proponent of such digitalization of food systems.
“We need new digital ambitions to reflect not just what technologies were 10 years ago or today, but where it is going,” Wagle told the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). “And all the techno-regulatory hurdles to achieve universal affordable broadband access, how we leverage that for public provisioning of services.”
🧠 Smart farming
Also known as farming automation, smart farming deploys AI, robotics, drones, watering motors, custom tractors, and computer vision software — which are just a few applications of technology used to automate farming processes, according to Bacancy Technology. These technologies reduce labour costs and time while also meeting the rising demands for food by the urban population.
Computer vision, for example, is used to determine where seeds and pesticides should be sprinkled for optimal effect. Machine Learning (ML) is another intelligent solution that can help eliminate weeds by recognizing undesirable species and crops.
Even though the concept and execution of smart farming is still in its infancy, there is no shortage of technologies available to modern farmers, IoT for All reports. These solutions include technologies and devices by way of sensors, software, connectivity, location, robotics, and data analytics.
Experts believe that smart farming cycles based on Internet of Things (IoT) technology can improve many aspects of farming, from growing crops to forestry. According to IoT for All, this farming strategy will be a godsend in precision farming and farming robotization.
❓ What is IoT? Internet of Things (IoT) is a system of interrelated tangible objects connected to the internet that can collect and transmit data to a wireless network without human control, as defined by Aeris.
“To optimize the farming process, IoT devices installed on a farm should collect and process data in a repetitive cycle that enables farmers to react quickly to emerging issues and changes in ambient conditions,” IoT for All writes.
IoT is a growing infrastructure, with over a billion physical devices around the world connected to the internet, all receiving and disseminating data. If you have, for instance, an automated watering device connected to an app on your smartphone, you’re using a piece of IoT technology that makes your life easier and more efficient!
Precision farming, in particular, is a major industry trend reports have forecasted, especially in its capacity to optimize yield and investment returns.
“Precision farming technologies have the potential to lower long-term demand structures as margins become tighter because of increased utilization,” according to CAAR. “Higher commodity prices may also lead to farmers investing more in inputs such as seeds and fertilizers.”
Precision farming and other applications of IoT are part of the larger market trend of environmentally conscious farming practices and evolving consumer demands in North America, which have seen a higher emphasis on environmental and humanitarian consciousness in the provenance and production of foodstuffs, such as antibiotic control, greenhouse gas emissions, and worker’s rights.
Speaking at the 2021 CAAR conference, Samuel Taylor, Vice President of RaboResearch North America, reminded attendees of the symbiotic relationship between the farmer and consumer that is often eclipsed by the greater mechanisms of the marketplace and commercial intermediaries.
“I believe that there is a social contract between the farmer and consumer that needs to be enhanced, and I think that they should both start appreciating each other a little bit more,” Taylor said.
🪴 Vertical farming
A favourite topic here at Truly Local Farms, vertical farming — especially indoors — is an agricultural trend that is on a steady rise in the sector, providing a space and resource efficient solution to lands where soil is scarce or not arable.
Vertical farming relies on water, using either hydroponic or aeroponic systems, but still reduces water usage by 70%, Industry Today reported. Experts also believe that with the advent of robots and automation, vertical farming can also alleviate labour shortages.
🪴 Get your complete guide to vertical farming here.
Another clever way to maximize vertical space is the Ring Garden concept developed by Romanian architect and art director Alexandru Predonu. The garden is a floating, solar-powered structure that acts as a rotating aeroponics farm, desalination plant, and algae bioreactor in one, Inhabitat reports. The Ring Garden can produce 16 million gallons of clean water, 40,000 pounds of aeroponic crops, and 11,000 pounds of spirulina biomass.
“The main idea behind the Ring Garden is to save water that is wasted through regular agricultural practices,” the concept graphic reads, adding that 95% of water that is used for irrigation typically evaporates. “The project tries to solve this issue by creating a highly efficient ecosystem.”
SOURCES
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/expert_paper/How_to_Feed_the_World_in_2050.pdf
https://industrytoday.com/modern-farming/
https://info.biomemakers.com/hubfs/Ag%20Trends%20and%20Challenges%202021%20-%20Biome%20Makers.pdf
https://www.bacancytechnology.com/blog/agriculture-technology-trends
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/overview